France-Algeria Tensions: Why Escalation Could Threaten Social Cohesion

Amid the growing influence of what could be described as a hardline faction within the French diplomatic establishment, represented by former French ambassador to Algeria Xavier Driencourt, who has come to dominate the discourse surrounding bilateral relations, a contrasting voice has emerged from within the same institution. This second camp rejects the policy of escalation, arguing that it has cost Paris much of its leverage in its dealings with a country that France once regarded as one of its vital partners on the African continent.

This position is represented by another French diplomat, Michel Duclos, who has served in some of France’s most important embassies, including those in Moscow, Brussels, Bonn and Damascus. Duclos argues that France’s recent management of relations with Algeria has been driven less by a coherent strategy than by a climate of political and media agitation, allowing the Algerian side to gain considerable ground in recent years.

In an opinion piece published in Le Monde on Friday, September 11, Michel Duclos wrote: “The bilateral relationship would benefit from being managed away from the spotlight and with greater calm. From the French perspective, our leverage will be stronger if we stop giving Algeria the opportunity to capitalize on systematic dramatization of disputes.”

Duclos advocates what he describes as “desensitizing” the bilateral relationship. This would mean lowering the level of tension and emotion, thereby making the relationship less vulnerable to escalation whenever a crisis arises, and managing it calmly, away from media attention and public statements. This stands in stark contrast to the approach pursued by former French ambassador to Algeria Xavier Driencourt through his repeated appearances on television talk shows and contributions to newspapers and media outlets associated with the far right.

According to Duclos, the calmer the bilateral relationship remains, “the less exposed we are to the means of pressure available to our Algerian partners.” He also urged the administration of French President Emmanuel Macron to “avoid a succession of ministerial visits to Algeria, which are invariably followed, at the first incident or disagreement, by a highly publicized freeze in relations and angry statements from both sides.”

He was referring to the visits to Algeria by Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez in February 2026, Justice Minister Gérald Moussa Darmanin in May 2026, and Minister Delegate for the Armed Forces Alice Rufo, also in May 2026—all within a period of less than three months.

Michel Duclos also criticized the way French authorities have handled Algeria over the 1968 migration agreement, which far-right politicians sought to use as leverage against Algiers in order, they claimed, to secure additional consular laissez-passer for Algerian nationals who have been issued expulsion orders from French territory. He described this as evidence of shortcomings in the French side’s handling of bilateral disputes.

The senior French diplomat explained: “We must be clear: withdrawing from the 1968 agreement will not, however, resolve the issue of the consular laissez-passer required to return Algerians who are no longer wanted in France to their country. This issue falls within the scope of substantive negotiations with the Algerian authorities, based on the balance of power that we, too, will have succeeded in establishing with them, away from the noise that has accompanied the crisis throughout.”

In Duclos’s view, “the current approach does not protect us from further setbacks in the future in relations with Algeria. More importantly, it offers little hope of resolving the fundamental issues, foremost among them the 1968 agreement and the other outstanding issues that are steadily eroding and weakening the bilateral relationship.”
He argued that French officials should have avoided presenting the 1968 agreement as a matter of vital importance to France, as it has been portrayed in political debate.

Despite the relative calm that has characterized bilateral relations in recent months, the French diplomat did not rule out a return to confrontation—one that could, this time, lead to a complete rupture.

“There is another possible scenario: confrontation, or even a break in relations. The problem with this course of action is the risk of escalation on both sides. Through successive countermeasures and retaliatory steps, the two countries could reach a point where the situation becomes difficult for either side to control. If, for example, this were to affect the freedom of movement of Algerian nationals between the two countries, it could ultimately threaten social stability in France.”