IEF15 Forum: A few days to go for Algeria to bridge gap between “arch-rivals” for setting oil output ceiling

The 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) will be held from 26 to 28 September in Algiers and will bring together more than 600 foreign participants, said officials from the Department of Energy. In addition to the energy ministers of the 73 member countries of the Forum, this major gathering will see the attendance of officials, experts and representatives of oil and gas companies as well as international organizations such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the international Energy Agency (IEA) and the gas exporting countries Forum (GECF).

As for Algeria’s participation, it will be made up of officials from several companies activating in the field of energy (oil, renewable energies…). Regarding the ministerial meeting of the forum, scheduled from September 27 to 28, the focus will be on energy transition. 

The Forum’s proceedings will deal with oil and gas prospects, the role of renewable energy, the importance of access to energy services in human development and the role of technology. 

The IEF15 “also will be an opportunity to take stock of the global energy dialogue and discuss ways and means to strengthen the world market with the search for the setting of a ceiling to global oil output”, explained the chairman of the forum’s organizing committee, Mohamed Hamel, who said that the 73 member countries represent about 90% of consumption and global energy production. 

Algeria, which has held the presidency of the Executive Council of the Forum from 2014 to 2016, was elected in 2013 to organize the 15th edition.

Meanwhile, OPEC said Monday in its latest assessment report that oil production by countries outside the exporters’ organization was now expected to rise in 2017, revising its previous expectations of a drop.

In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Kazakhstan, Norway and Britain were now all expected to produce more next year than forecast earlier.

This means production outside OPEC is expected to rise by 200,000 barrels per day, against previous projections of a 150,000 b/d decline.

Global oil demand is projected to continue growing.

For 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is still projected to contract, by 610,000 barrels per day, a drop however slightly smaller than previously expected.

OPEC, which does not forecast supply by its own 14 members, said it saw world oil demand growth rising by 1.23 million b/d this year.

World oil demand is also expected to rise in 2017, it added. “The main growth centers for next year continue to be India, China and the US,” the OPEC report said.

Oil prices tumbled again Monday in Asian trade on a pick-up in drilling and a strong dollar as speculation swirled that the US Federal Reserve could hike interest rates as soon as this month.

Producers have been hurt by plunging oil prices for around two years due to a stubborn supply glut.

Crude prices have been slashed from around $100 in mid-2014 to 13-year lows of below $30 at the start of this year.

Notwithstanding, traders are now fixed on a meeting of OPEC countries and non-cartel member Russia, in Algiers later this month.

Some producers hope the talks will lead to a freeze in production that would boost oil prices.

Officials from Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia have sought to soothe concerns ahead of the outstanding talks in Algiers.

A previous attempt at a production cap in April was derailed by Iran, which refused to join in talks as it ramps up output after the lifting in January of years of nuclear-linked sanctions. 

Iran briefly triggered a spike in prices late last month when it announced it would participate in the meeting.

Algeria is expected to strive during the upcoming Algiers get-together to iron out the lingering divergences between the two arch-rivals (Iran and Saudi Arabia) in a bid to clear the way for the setting of an oil output ceiling so as to boost crude prices on the world market.