Spain Surmounts Moroccan Pressure to Solidify Strategic Rapprochement with Algeria

Some Spanish strategic specialists see the improving relationship between Algiers and Madrid as a lever that the Moroccan regime is attempting to use to pressure Spain, with the aim of derailing the rapprochement and returning bilateral relations to the strained period between 2022 and 2025, when diplomatic and economic ties suffered a severe deterioration.

These analysts view the anticipated visit of Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to Spain—which has not yet been officially confirmed—as well as the announcement of a high-level meeting scheduled for October, as developments that have unsettled the Moroccan regime. They argue that Morocco has long regarded the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez as vulnerable, particularly since the theft of sensitive documents from the mobile phones of senior Spanish officials, including Sánchez himself, in the Pegasus spyware affair.

Among the academics advancing this interpretation is Miguel Hernando de Larramendi, a professor of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Castilla-La Mancha, who discussed the issue in statements to the Europa Press news agency on Sunday.

The growing rapprochement between Algiers and Madrid has coincided with two developments that could further raise tensions between Spain and Morocco: the planned visit by King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia to the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla in the coming weeks, and the approval of legislation granting Spanish citizenship to members of the Sahrawi community. According to this account, these developments were among the factors behind Rabat’s response on July 30 and 31, when some 80,000 Moroccan irregular migrants entered Ceuta in a mass influx, amid the visible presence of Moroccan security forces.

This time, however, the circumstances appear markedly different from those of 2022. Morocco is facing what some analysts describe as an especially difficult period at both the domestic and international levels, potentially limiting its ability to pressure Madrid into scaling back its ties with Algeria.

Domestically, tensions have risen following the Moroccan monarchy’s decision to upgrade diplomatic relations with the Zionist entity to ambassadorial level.

Relations between Rabat and Madrid have also become increasingly worsening. In Spain, there is reportedly broad political and public support for holding Morocco accountable over what Spanish authorities regard as a challenge to Spanish sovereignty linked to the events surrounding Ceuta, despite the Sánchez government’s efforts to ease tensions.

Against this backdrop, Spain’s National Court has ordered further investigations into the entity or entities that organized and coordinated the mobilization that preceded the mass entry into Ceuta from the Moroccan side of the border, particularly in the town of Fnideq.

The move follows a ruling issued on September 7 by Judge María Tardón, who accepted the findings of a report prepared by Spain’s National Commission for Economic and Social Research concerning the mass-entry operation. The report rejected the notion that the events were spontaneous, instead characterizing them as an organized operation involving distinct phases before, during and after the events. despite the Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska rejecting those conclusions, according to the Spanish newspaper El Independiente.

The prevailing belief in Spain is that the country’s deep state has bypassed the Sánchez government—due to suspicions that he submitted to the Moroccan regime following the theft and blackmail using documents from his personal phone—and has decided to take the initiative against Rabat.

Those pointing to such a shift cite several recent developments, including King Felipe VI’s appearance in military uniform at a meeting with senior Spanish military commanders, his announced intention to visit Ceuta and Melilla, and the National Court’s decision to investigate alleged Moroccan involvement in organizing the events surrounding Ceuta. Supporters of this interpretation regard these moves as a direct challenge to Rabat.

Taken together, these developments could constrain Morocco’s ability to maneuver and pressure Madrid into limiting its rapprochement with Algiers. Spain, meanwhile, has a strong strategic interest in maintaining reliable access to energy supplies, particularly given its longstanding bilateral partnership with Algeria, the geographic proximity of Algerian energy infrastructure, and the importance of Algerian supplies to Spain’s energy security.