Algeria’s Demographic Advantage as Morocco Faces a New Fertility Decline

The Maghreb region is experiencing a significant demographic transformation that could reshape its social and economic landscape in the coming decades. According to a study by a French institute specializing in demography, Algeria appears to be less affected by the decline in fertility rates than its neighbors, Morocco and Tunisia.

The study attributes this trend partly to changing social patterns, including the increasing tendency among youth to delay marriage due to economic and social pressures. These demographic shifts could have major consequences for population structures, labor markets, and economies that rely heavily on human capital.

Algeria is currently in a relatively stronger demographic position compared with its neighboring countries and even some European nations, according to the recently published study, which included contributions from Algerian experts. The country’s average fertility rate stands at around 2.4 children per woman, remaining above the replacement level, although it has been declining since 2017.

In contrast, Morocco’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement threshold, reaching approximately 1.97 children per woman by 2026, compared with seven to eight children per woman during the 1970s. This sharp decline reflects a profound demographic transition over just a few decades.

The study warns that the population gap between Algeria and Morocco could continue to widen due to Algeria’s higher population growth rate. According to United Nations estimates, Algeria’s population is expected to reach around 48 million people in 2026, while Morocco’s population is projected at approximately 38.7 million during the same year. This difference, currently around ten million people, could deepen the demographic imbalance between the two neighboring countries.

The comparative analysis conducted by the French National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) indicates that all three major Maghreb countries are moving toward lower fertility levels. Algeria is approaching a “low fertility” phase, while Morocco and Tunisia are already experiencing “very low fertility” levels. However, all three countries still remain above the European Union average, which stands at approximately 1.34 children per woman.

Within the European Union, Malta records one of the lowest fertility rates, at around 1.01 children per woman, followed by Spain at approximately 1.1. France has one of the highest fertility rates in Europe, at around 1.62 children per woman, partly influenced by immigration patterns, while Bulgaria also records a relatively high level at around 1.72. The EU has been facing a long-term fertility crisis, with many countries relying increasingly on immigration to address labor shortages caused by population decline.

Regarding Morocco’s declining birth rate, the French Institute for Demographic Studies and Research (INED) links the trend to several factors, including longer periods of education, delayed entry into the labor market—especially among women—and wider access to contraception. Economic challenges, including poverty and unemployment, have also contributed to changing family decisions.

The study explains that difficulties in entering the workforce and balancing professional and family responsibilities often delay marriage and motherhood plans, leading to postponed births. It also notes that parents are increasingly prioritizing their children’s education, well-being, and quality of life, resulting in greater emotional and financial investment in fewer children.

The widespread use of contraception has also played an important role. In 2018, the latest year for which data was available, around 71% of Moroccan women used contraception, compared with approximately 53.6% in Algeria.

At the same time, Morocco is experiencing faster population aging compared with Algeria. According to the study, people aged over 60% represent around 13.8% of Morocco’s population, compared with 27% in Spain. Researchers expect Morocco’s aging process to accelerate in the coming years as fertility rates continue to decline.

A shrinking number of youth entering the labor market could have a mixed impact. On one hand, it may help reduce youth unemployment, which remains high in Morocco, with youth unemployment estimated at around 37.2% and the overall unemployment rate at approximately 13%. On the other hand, a smaller working-age population could create long-term economic challenges if productivity and investment do not increase.

The study warns that Maghreb countries may face population aging before reaching the levels of economic development and prosperity that would make them attractive destinations for immigrants. Wealthier European countries are currently better positioned to compensate for demographic decline through immigration, although Europe itself is expected to face population challenges in the long term.

By 2100, Europe’s population is projected to decline significantly, while Africa’s population is expected to continue growing, potentially reaching several billion people. This demographic shift could transform global economic and geopolitical dynamics in the decades ahead.