American Policy Analysis : “Bouteflika Would Face No Legal Obstacle To Running For A Fifth Time”

An American policy analysis expected President Bouteflika to announce his candidacy for a fifth presidential term in February, saying that he would “bow to the calls of the ruling parties and run again”.

It warned that the next president would face a difficult economic situation, continuing threats from terrorist cells in Libya and Mali, a growing social anger among the Algerian jobless youth.

The study that was conducted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, entitled “Hints of Crisis as Algeria Enters Election Mode” was presented by the researcher Abdelillah Bendaoudi, and it analyses the stage precursors that precedes April’s date and the next stage, the bets that face the future president.

“Although the constitutional amendment in 2008 abolished the maximum number of presidential terms, paving the way for Bouteflika to take office before the amendments of the 2016 amendments. In both cases, a declaration is expected in February”, the report said.

The study, that was prepared by Abdelillah Bendaoudi, a freelance writer and analyst on counter-terrorism based in Maryland and a reporter and contributor to the Muslim Link Newspaper, confirms the crisis in the coming period as a result of several indicators: “Regardless of who assumes the presidency, Algeria’s incoming leadership will face a host of challenges, the most pressing ones being economic and security-related. On the economic front, a sharp fall in hydrocarbon revenues and a slowdown in the industrial sector forced Algeria to implement austerity measures while increasing taxation”.

“Furthermore, the security vacuum in neighboring countries, most notably Libya and Mali, has created a significant threat”.

“Meanwhile, Libya and Mali have become safe heavens for terrorists and organized crime groups, facilitating radicalism and extremism in the region. All of these problems constitute a serious burden for Algeria’s military, which has generally been seen among the most well-organized and capable forces in the region”.

The study recommends that the military should adapt to developments in the neighboring countries, apply a new security approach to the region, and that the new approach should be a priority for policy makers in Algeria, “Ultimately, the fragile security situation, coupled with political instability, weak governance, and new transnational threats, requires that the Algerian army continually adapt. While military groups will likely continue to exploit the regional security vacuum, the need to implement a new security approach toward the region should remain at the forefront of Algerian policymakers’ attention. Additionally, these challenges should be at the center of discussions and decisions in the upcoming elections, regardless of how the next president will handle this national security problem.

The study concluded with a labyrinth about the coming days in Algerian-American relationships, asserting that Algeria has traditionally avoided establishing a strong relationship with the United States; “Although Algeria has traditionally eschewed a robust relationship with the United States, bilateral ties have grown in recent years due to shared interests in containing the spread of terrorist networks across North and Central Africa. To the extent Algeria has emerged as a counter-terrorism partner, it is in America’s interest to see a smooth transition of power, even if Washington has limited leverage in affecting the outcome of the transition”.