Projected Scenarios For Price Of A Barrel Of Oil Until 2019

Experts and analysts have speculated about oil prices for the next two years, among them those who describe the government of Ahmed Ouyahia as “lucky» by foreseeing that the price of the “black gold” might rise next year to reach $ 80 dollars, and those who maintain that an oil barrel reaching $ 56 dollars during the past two days is only a reflection of the decline in the dollar and this will not last long.

 Therefore, the latter called on the Algerians “not live in the imagination,” amid optimistic statements by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia yesterday at the lower house of  parliament, where he said that the crisis in Algeria will end within 3 years.

Energy expert Abderrahmane Mebtoul, asserted to this effect that the high price of a barrel of oil above $ 55 dollars over the past three days, is a transient rise resulting from the growth in Europe, the United States and China, as well as the devaluation of the US dollar against the euro, and this led to the hike of the price of the “black gold” by 15 percent.

 Without the dollar’s decline, the price of the oil barrel would not have exceeded $ 50 and would have been set at $ 47, he further said.

He described the muted talk that is currently being promoted, with some expects predicting that oil prices would rise next year to reach 80 dollars stressing that this is unrealistic.

He declared in this line that “Oil may reach at best $ 65 dollars next year, and will not exceed this figure, and this is certain, adding that the price of an oil barrel will be much lower starting from 2019”. 

According to official statements released by China’s Minister of Development, China plans to reduce compulsory gasoline and diesel fuel consumption by 60 percent  as early as 2019.

China consumes one-third of the world’s oil demand and  is poised to reduce its needs. The black market will become stagnant in 2019 and the crisis will return, thus the government is required to steer clear of imagination and dreams and stick to the reality of exploration and exploration of unconventional energies, as the latter could be an alternative in the next phase.

For his part, expert at the World Bank, Mohamed Hamidouche, waxed in a statement to “Echorouk” rather optimistic about the evolution of the world oil market, and expected prices to hike to $ 80 dollars by next year and to further increase to reach around $ 100 dollars in two years, thus bringing about the return of financial liberalization in Algeria, thanks to the market’s growth and the global demand.

He further argued that the financial architecture of the Algerian economy is based on the price of oil above the $ 70 a barrel, and the expected price of $ 80 will achieve profitability in spending, as he put it.