Syrian political analyst Fahd Al-Masri to Echorouk: “Pt Assad was unaware of Russia's decision to withdraw… his Defense Minister informed him about the move”

In an exclusive interview with “Echorouk”, Fahd Al-Masri, Head of the Center for Strategic, Military and Security Studies on Syria, stated that Syrian President Assad was baffled by the recent Russian decision to withdraw its main air force from troubled Syria, stressing that this decision came in the context of the US-Russia agreement with the covert and ultimate objective to remove Bashar Assad from the Syrian political scene in the framework of a consensual political solution between the two superpowers in order to put an end to the 5-year long Syrian war which has wreaked a horrendous chaos in terms of human suffering and caused widespread destruction in the entire country with dire external repercussions.

What is meant by the pull out of Russian troops from Syria, does it mean that beleaguered President Assad has been left in the lurch, or that Moscow is quite confident about his Army’s strength in the face of the Syrian armed opposition?

Firstly, Russia hasn’t intervened militarily in Syria to defend Bashar al-Assad and his regime, but entered the fray for the safeguarding of its vested strategic and vital interests in Syria and in the region, and for  snatching important Arab, regional and international gains through its direct involvement in the vexed Syrian file.

The Russian military withdrawal came after Moscow achieved full strategic goals through this armed intervention and its unprecedented escalation. Actually, this a partial withdrawal and not from the whole of Syria; the Russian military will maintain the survival of Russian military bases located on the Syrian coast notably the naval base in Tartous, and the air base in Latakia. 

These bases are of great interest for Russia primarily in Syria, given thar neighbouring Turkey is seen by Moscow as a source of threat, and Syria is thus deemed as the back yard of Russian national security. 

It is also through its military presence in Syria on the coast, that Moscow stands in the face of any pipeline projects to transport Qatari or Iranian gas supplies directly to Europe, either through Turkey or Syria, as this can create a new balance with Europe and the East generally in view of the bitter row about the issue of Ukraine and Crimea.

And therefore through its potent military presence along the Syrian coast,  Russia is keen to play the role of a policeman in the warm waters of the Mediterranean basin.

Russia managed through the element of surprise embodied by its unexpected military intervention in Syria to foster a rapprochement with countries in general and the Gulf Arab region in particular, amid a climate of anxiety stemming from the volatility in the US position on Iran and its convergence with the latter.

This new geo-strategic situation brought those countries to forge the rapprochement with Moscow and embark upon the signing of important strategic, military and economic agreements with Russia.

Russia also seized the opportunity not to waver to fill up the vacuum created by the US shilly-shally position, while being fully aware of the American covert trap designed to put further strain on all parties at issue by letting them locked in a war of attrition in Syria with its adverse repercussions in the entire region. 

And today, this partial Russian withdrawal comes after the achievement by Moscow of its strategic goals in the region and it must noted that Russia pushed to help enforce the cessation of hostilities in Syria in conjunction with the US against a backdrop of Russia’s lackluster internal situation, especially the deterioration of the ruble and its current difficult economic situation and this move came about under the influence of major Russian business leaders who want to shore up Russia’s brand-image in the Arab and Muslim world.

Russia, since September 30th and until the date of its partial withdrawal worked through aerial bombardments along the demarcation lines to  forge a sectarian prelude to a project for a federal government, including guarantees for the group of al-Assad to stay in the mini-state in a bid to protect the vested interests of Russia on the Syrian coast. 

But  such a projected federal government and the division will surely crumble and won’t succeed, because this project if it happened would spark off an awesome civil war in Syria, which has not yet actually begun, and if it’s ignited, it will  linger on for many years and will claim the lives of many millions of Syrians, and the Alawites would mostly be affected, by this somber contingency because the Civil War necessarily mean the virtual extinction of the Alawite sect after losing about a third of their number during the five years of the war.

What backlash effect will have the abrupt Russian military pull out from Syria on the fate of Bashar Al Assad?

Contrary to what was broadcast by Syrian official media outlets, Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t directly informed President Al Assad about the Russian decision to withdraw from Syria, but Al Assad still unaware of the move, was utterly surprised when receiving a call from his defense minister, who was in contact with his Russian opposite number, apprising him of the unexpected Russian military pull out at a time when Russian battleships and warships were already seen leaving the Syrian port of Tartous .

As part of a covert scheme worked out by the US and Russia aimed at bailing Syria out of its vexed crisis, it’s expected that the role of Bashar Al Assad will be terminated if it became necessary to remove him from power, and therefore we should not be surprised to hear the news of the possible killing of Al-Assad and a number of the pillars of his inner circle.

Bashar Al Assad and without a doubt will be lucky if it met the fate of Gaddafi or Ceausescu, and undoubtedly he will go down in history as three Syrians belonging to the Alawite Sect have secretly vowed to assassinate him sooner or later?!

Would you be more precise about these three unnamed Syrian Alawis who are covertly planning to assassinate Bashar Al Assad?

Sorry, but I can’t delve into this sensitive case owing to its very confidential character…