The French Are Looking For Scenarios To Deal With Algeria

Trends and advice from research centers and French specialists have increased regarding dealing with the Algerian authorities in light of the crisis affecting bilateral relations, these efforts come close to a political transition that seems fraught with risks in France, given the strong possibility of the far-right reaching the Elysee Palace for the first time.

The new development in this file is that the prestigious French “Institut Montaigne” conducted a study through which it tried to explore suitable scenarios for Paris’s dealings in the coming period with Algeria, in light of the tensions that characterize relations between the two countries on many levels, foremost of which are migration, economy, trade, and language..

The study was titled “France – Algeria: Scenarios for Moving Beyond Emotion”, and it outlined three options for French policy toward Algeria, it calls on the French government to follow a practical approach in this relationship, as the date of the upcoming French presidential elections next year approaches, according to a summary published on the research center’s website on the 10th of this month.

The study claims that it has moved away from the emotional approach in order to help political authorities build a pragmatic position. The priorities were formulated based on the concerns of the French side and away from the other side, and were identified as migration, economic relations, and everything related to memory and identity (language).

Regarding migration, the study says that it constitutes an obsession for France, because Algeria is considered the first country whose nationals obtain more residence permits than others (650,000 permits in 2024), which the study called (legal migration), framed in particular by the 1968 agreement, which establishes a special system for the movement, work, and residence of Algerian citizens and their families, a fact it said contradicts the priorities of French migration policy.

As for the second part of this axis, it consists of illegal migration, the management of the affairs of the Algerian population residing in France, and the return of Algerian citizens against whom expulsion orders were issued by migration services in France, which is one of the contentious issues that disagreements have decreased about since the departure of the former French Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, last year.

The second axis was represented in economic relations, to which Paris attaches paramount importance given the importance of Algeria to Paris. The volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached 11 billion euros in 2024, a level lower than the volume of trade exchange with Morocco or Tunisia, the study says.

This exchange is mainly focused on fossil fuels (hydrocarbons), which represent more than half of the trade volume and about 90% of French imports from Algeria.

The study believes that although France possesses a very diversified investment portfolio in Algeria, the potential of the economic relationship remains largely untapped. Furthermore, France faces increasing competition from countries such as Italy, China, and Turkey, which are advancing while France lags behind.

The third axis of the study consists of “a set of broader issues, linked to Francophonie, memory, and geopolitics”. The study paused at the decline of the French language’s place in Algeria under the influence of Arabization and the rise of the English language, starting from the new school year which witnessed for the first time in Algeria’s history, the demotion of French to the fourth year compared to the advancement of English to the third year in the primary stage, which caused great controversy in political and media circles in Paris.

The study acknowledged the failure of French President Emmanuel Macron’s project in the memory file, just as the position on the Western Sahara issue caused an unprecedented crisis between the two countries, while claiming the existence of consensus on other regional issues, such as the Sahel region, which has turned into a preoccupation for Paris in recent years, after being hunted there by local governments.

To face up to all this, the study outlines three scenarios, the first is for France to continue its current policy which has not been able to address the fundamental problems, or to adopt the option of rupture, by proceeding unilaterally to drop the implementation of the 1968 agreement, which would trigger a diplomatic crisis that might be difficult to overcome, as for the third scenario, it consists of “easing tension” by adopting a more conservative approach in managing these relations.

Based on those scenarios, the study recommends adopting the third option while combining the first and second options, which means stopping the implementation of the 1968 agreement, while maintaining openness to areas of convergence and opportunities for cooperation, especially in the economic and geopolitical fields, a path that Algeria cannot engage in according to unofficial statements, because it considered the 1968 agreement a red line, as it is an extension of the Evian Accords.