The Strategic Role Assigned to the Reforms –Algeria 2021/2025
Using an open matrix model from a dynamic point of view, we can put into perspective the whole of the above demonstration and thus envisage the various possible scenarios on the basis of the forces at the internal level, taking into account the evolution of the strategy of the actors at the external level. This will be the subject for a later work.
1- Assumption A – Failure of the process of the reforms
The conditions of the failure are real and they are gathered in the economic legal environment in case of:
– lack of visibility and coherence in the political, economic and social approach stressed by income holders at the internal level and some parts of external actors which maintain informal relations and which are not keen on reinforcing the reforms (loss of the markets in the case of transparent inviting bids).
– ambiguity of the legal texts which leads to legal blocking of the reforms.
– the multiplicity of the speakers creating confusion in prerogatives.
– fragility of internal investment capacities, the stabilization plan to carriy out forced savings at the expense of the average social strata which are reduced to poverty.
– maintaining mistrust between internal-external investors by continual modifications of legal texts while stability is a must and populists speeches on payments of accounts on a sensitive subject such as taxation sustained by unfavourable actors ‑ strong pressure to return to the protectionist pressures insofar as liberalization destroys a fraction of the revenue.
2-Assumption B – status quo
This assumption will prepare the conditions of failure by linking the current social conditions (poverty and unemployment) to the reforms which, except for macro‑economic stabilization, have not started yet in Algeria (micro‑economic reforms and institutional stakes of the years 2021/2025 or with technical bodies while the essence resides in the absence of political good-will (neutralization of the forces involved).
This status quo takes part in a programmed failure and it would be suicidal for the future of the economy and that of the Algerian society. That is maintaining confusion of certain concepts, wrongfully assimilating reforms to selling off of national resources. Thus, according to advocates of this analysis, the reforms would be dictated by big international oil companies, the IMF and the World Bank, thus reminding us the times of the inquuisition against those who preached the market economy and the introduction of Democracy.
3.-Assumption C – success of the process of the reforms
The conditions for success of the reforms in Algeria are also included in its economic and political legal environment. The cultural demystification is significant and it must continue. The devastating rumours in public opinion only render weaknesses of the communication system in Algeria where orality has place of pride. Thus, a close cooperation of the political parties, associations, and generally of all the civil society, the administration including where Walis (City Mayors), public and private firms, the workers community, trade unions, with a levelling through dialogue and dialogue divergences is urgently needed.
It will also be a question of reconciling the strategic objectives by means of adequate tactics through a symbiosis of individual interests and collective interest by showing that the winners of medium-term reforms will be more numerous than the losers on a short term. An active and judicious communication is fundamental to achieve success of the reforms. Strengthened by the support of external actors and the mobilization of the favorable internal actors and by a strong governmental solidarity, Algeria – which in geostrategic terms is an essential element in euro‑médilerranean and arabo‑african stability which constitute its natural space, by a more clearly stated policy resulting in acts – can make the process of the reforms a success and that is deeply related to the democratization of the Algerian society.
Generally, in the future, the decrease of Algeria’s risk in the main world insurance companies in view of the fact that the security aspect has improved significantly, will depend on the acceleration of the reforms.
Thus, the States which does not invest bearing in mind that in the business world feelings does not hold, the reforms are the only factor which allows economic growth, reduces the throbbing problem of unemployment and poverty. Any obstacle to these reforms does nothing but decrease the growth rate, increases insecurity in the country and contributes to the social and political destabilization. Thus, one must struggle and demystify this disastrous vision that some want to propagate for narrow personal interests, while wanting to perpetuate the crisis. – and time being money, any delay will induce more significant social costs supported those in need. (the poor).
The fact remains that the reforms resting on social concertation and dialogue, by rehabilitating the human capital as a source of development, will actually take place as they represent a must for national development – and Algeria will be able to take up the challenges of the 21st century which are characterized by an interdependent world in perpetual movement.